Popular political analyst, Mr. Raheem Akingbolu writes that the victory of All Progressives Congress candidates in the Saturday by-elections in Lagos shows that the state political trend is yet to change.
After months of intensive campaign amidst bickering among the political gladiators, 11 states of the federation participated at various levels in the Saturday by-election. It thus put an end to apprehension on the part of stakeholders in the nation’s political landscape.
Though Lagos East Senatorial District and Kosofe constituency, where a Senatorial and House of Assembly elections took place respectively were just tiny part in the entire process, they attracted more attention.
Naturally, one would expect that of all the states, Lagos for obvious reasons would generate more debate than others owing to the fallout of the #EndSARS protest and the campaign for a change of status quo in Lagos politics, the interest in who wins in Lagos became palpable. While the by-election campaign was going on, the #EndSARS protest broke and scuttled the entire process.
On the night of Tuesday, October 20, in what has since be tagged ‘Lekki shootings’, officers of Nigerian Army clashed with some protesters at the Lekki Tollgate and the issue got out of hands.
By the morning of Wednesday 21 October, blame game had started, with verbal attacks, rumours, lies, conflicting numbers of casualties reigning supreme.
At the climax of the crisis, hoodlums took to the street of Lagos and started burning everything in sight. In particular, they went after properties and business concerns believed to have link with a former Governor of the state, Senator Bola Tinubu.
Then some individuals, within and outside politics, especially Chief Olabode George, who had seen Tinubu as a thorn in their flesh, quickly leveraged on the opportunity and started echoing the need to terminate Tinubu’s legendary influence on Lagos politics.
The bashing received by Tinubu, coupled with the ‘soro-soke’ slogan which was like a wakeup call for youths to take over, made many political observers concluded that Tinubu’s era might have gone.
In fact, some analysts had predicted that Tunde Gbadamosi, the Peoples Democratic Party Senatorial candidate in the election would have a landslide victory over Tokunbo Abiru of the APC.
But by Sunday morning, result from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), has confirmed that Abiru of the APC defeated Gbadamosi of PDP at the Lagos East Senatorial by-election with a wide margin.
Abiru polled a total of 89,204 votes to defeat Gbadamosi who got 11,257 votes, leaving a margin of 77,947 votes.
With the outcome of the election, many political pundits, who had concluded that the era of Tinubu and APC was gone, may have reconsidered their stance.
Human right activist and one of the strongest critics of the current administration, Comrade Deji Adeyanju, had lashed out at the youths for their nonchalant attitude despite their resolve to seize power from the old generation.
As it was becoming glaring that APC would win the election, he tweeted @adeyanjudeji; “Lagos East By-election: Soro-Soke generation are not at polling units. They are on the internet pressing phone,”
Another social media influencer @awomanofpeace, tweeted; “Lagos youths, I will not involve myself in any #EndSARS protest anymore.
If I can be wasting my data retweeting #EndSARS but still we cannot do the right thing by voting out bad leaders through simple by-elections. Let us keep suffering and smiling abeg the youths are not serious,”
A journalist and political analyst, Sylvanus Idowu, believes that the Saturday election has revalidated the place of Senator Tinubu in Nigeria politics. Idowu, who maintained that there would not be immediate change the way the ‘soro soke’ promoters mouthed it urged Nigerian youths who desire change to join existing parties en masse and influence decision.
“I was not in any way surprised that APC’s candidates won in Lagos. I am not also surprise that Asiwaju Bola Tinubu is still relevant in Lagos politics despite the campaign of calumny that were launched against him during the #EndSARS protest. Much as I will not want to comment on the protest I want to point out that it was actually hijacked. On the APC victory, it was meant to be because the structure in Lagos is strong and well encompassing.
In fact, if we judge by the outcome of the election and the number votes garnered by the PDP, it translates to the fact that Mr. Gbadamosi can hardly win ordinary councillorship election,”
Another political observer, Ms. Dhirah Ogunnaike said the election has not only validated Tinubu’s strength but has confirmed his political wizardry that transcends Lagos.
Ogunnaike, an Ijebu-Ode based fish farmer and politician, who also described Tinubu as an asset to the ruling APC warned the party leadership not to sideline him as doing so would be tantamount to deflating the party.
“While many people were looking at the election as being among political parties, I saw it as Tinubu versus new Lagos ‘change agents’, within and outside party politics in Lagos.
The moment Tokunbo Abiru and Obafemi Saheed were pronounced winner of the Senatorial and House of Assembly elections respectively, I simply told people around me that Tinubu had won again.
To me, Senator Tinubu is not just a politician but a thoroughbred statesman because politicians think of the next election while statesmen think of the next generation. Tinubu had started long ago, like a man who saw the future.
He thinks ahead and positions the best of his followers for elections and appointments. This again played out between Abiru and Gbadamosi, I know the profile and antecedent of the two of them and I’m sure Lagos people know and choose wisely,”
But a PDP leader in the Alimosho area of Lagos, Fadare Adekanmi holds a different view, in an interview with AbujaCityJournal, Adekanmi said the process to change the trend has started, adding that Saturday election is not enough for anybody to conclude.
“I disagree with those who say the Saturday election has reconfirmed Tinubu’s grip on Lagos because we shouldn’t expect everything to change at once. I don’t have any personal grouse against Asiwaju Tinubu but I know political empire don’t last forever. Indirectly, he’s being rejected in Osun and very soon we will all know.
Forget the political statements being churned out by Governor Gboyega Oyetola and former Governor Rauf Aregbesola’s media aides, the house has started falling. It’s no more secret that Governor Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti and Former Governor Ibikunle Amosun , Muiz Banire SAN and many of his allies are digging holes around him.
In the next few months, it will manifest but negatively for Tinubu’s political empire. Back to the last Saturday election, APC perhaps won because the election took place in Tinubu’s comfort zone. He singlehandedly installed almost all the traditional rulers in the area, from Eleko to Oniru and Elegunsi. By 2022, I bet, a new dawn would have surfaced in Lagos political arena,”
Meanwhile, the candidate of the APC in the by-election, Tokunbo Abiru has described his victory at the polls as a reaffirmation of APC’s expanding political base in Lagos State.
The Senator-Elect in his victory speech on Sunday said the victory at the polls is the answer that APC’s unrepentant critics cannot contest in their wildest dream.
Abiru said, “If there are people out there, who still doubt the popularity of our great party; who do not reckon with our leadership in this political landscape and who still dispute our progressive approach to governance, our comfortable victory in the just concluded bye-election readily offers them an infallible answer.
“It is the answer the people of Lagos East generously delivered at the conclusion of last Saturday’s bye-election. It is the answer that resonates in their popular decision to give us their mandate.
“It is the answer that our unrepentant critics cannot contest, even in their wildest dream, given the credibility of the process that gave us the mandate,” he stated.
In the same manner, President Muhammadu Buhari has expressed satisfaction with his party –APC’s performance in the various states.
The president, in a statement by his Senior Special Assistant on Media and Publicity, Malam Garba Shehu, said the results from the polls showed APC as the choice of the people, adding that they will not be disappointed.
