A few days ago, I had a conversation with one of the senior leaders of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) who was in London for a medical check-up. During our meeting, I sought his views on the latest developments in the party and who will likely emerge as the presidential candidate in the 2027 general elections. His response: “As you are aware, the PDP governors already said they won’t be part of any coalition but will rebuild the party into a formidable opposition. Well, if they are able to keep the party together and Atiku didn’t join the SDP, he is our best bet for now.”
The next question is, does Atiku stand a chance against a master political strategist and sitting president like President Bola Tinubu, who will likely seek reelection for another term? My host replied, “Yes, I think he stands a chance when you consider (President Bola) Tinubu’s abysmal performance and the opposition from the North, especially on issues relating to anti-North policies and (alleged) marginalisation. Don’t forget, Tinubu got the support of the majority of the northern governors to win the APC presidential ticket in 2022. They also worked massively for him in the 2023 presidential election.”
He continued, “However, even Tinubu knows that many of the northern governors and lawmakers are unhappy with him over the tax reform bill and other policies and will work against him, even though they may be shouting ‘Sai Tinubu’ in public now. I believe Atiku is in talks with Peter Obi, and he wants a repeat of the joint ticket they had in 2019. Obi has a huge followership among the youths, who constitute a greater percentage of the voting populace. If Obi can bring that to the table and Atiku also delivers the North and some southern states, then the deal is done. Tinubu will also want to consolidate his base in the South. So, it is likely going to be a north vs south contest.”
After our meeting, so many thoughts kept ringing in my head, especially the ‘north vs south’ contest which he mentioned. How does that bode for Nigeria’s unity? We are yet to recover from the deep-seated animosity and ethnic rivalries that permeated the entire landscape during the last general elections, and now some people are ready to deepen it further with a north vs south political battle. Just recently, these leaders in their Easter and Sallah messages enjoined Nigerians to shun division and embrace unity and co-existence. They also called for a renewed sense of national cohesion and empathy while also urging the citizens to rise above divisions and work collectively towards peace and progress in the country. Yet, because of insatiable lust for power, these same people are prepared to throw that unity to the wastebin and are scheming towards an election that will further polarise an already divided country.
Let me begin with Atiku, Nigeria’s vice president from 1999 to 2007 during the Olusegun Obasanjo presidency. Atiku has been contesting presidential elections since 1993, and he is likely to do so again in 2027. Unlike before, when he jetted off to Dubai after elections and resurfaced after four years, Atiku has played the role of an opposition figure very well since the conclusion of the 2023 elections, constantly checkmating every decision taken by the Tinubu administration. However, from a candid point of view, Atiku’s desire to become Nigeria’s president is driven more by desperation than patriotism. He mouths the need for unity in the country on festive occasions, but in his heart, he is ready to jettison that unity for his selfish ambition.
The last presidential election reinforced my belief that Atiku is not a nationalist as he claims. There is an unwritten agreement that power should rotate between the north and south in the spirit of fairness, equity and justice. After a northerner, Muhammadu Buhari, was about to complete two terms of eight years, Atiku, who is from the northern state of Adamawa, threw his hat in the ring. If Atiku had won the election and served two terms, it would mean the north would have been in power for 16 consecutive years. How will that engender unity in a heavily polarised country? Will Atiku, in his heart of hearts, allow another southerner to become president after another southerner has completed eight years? Despite winning the presidential ticket of the PDP, Atiku’s party was heavily polarised, and he lost the main election. Just like he did with the Biblical Pharaoh, God ‘hardened’ the heart of Atiku, and he refused all the entreaties of party stakeholders, especially the G-5 governors led by Nyesom Wike. The rest, as they say, is history.
Atiku, who will be 80 years old in 2027, lost two golden opportunities to become Nigeria’s president. The first was in 2003 when the majority of the governors of the then ruling party, PDP, agreed to back him in the party’s presidential primary against his principal, Olusegun Obasanjo. The old, wily Obasanjo knew he had to stoop in order to conquer, and he did just that – he knelt down before Atiku and begged him to allow him to run for a second term.
Giving a vivid picture of what transpired then, Nobel laureate Prof. Wole Soyinka, as published by TheCable in the August 3, 2018 edition, said: “Before the PDP primaries in January 2003, Obasanjo got everyone he knew could reach me on the surface of the earth, including Yemi Ogunbiyi and my son, to get me to help him intercede when it was clear that (Abubakar) Atiku was in a position to take his job. He knew Atiku had a lot of regard for me and called me ‘Uncle’.
“The pressure was intense. Of course, I could not have knelt before Atiku, not to embark on a course of action that would lead to his boss’ disgrace. But I can confirm to you that Obasanjo, as president, knelt down before Atiku so that he would not lose his job. But I warned Atiku that for making Obasanjo kneel down for you, be sure you would have to pay heavily for that. I guess my warning came to pass if you remember Atiku’s dramatic change of fortune once Obasanjo was sworn in for a second term of office.”
The second golden opportunity missed by Atiku was in the last presidential election when Atiku refused entreaties by major stakeholders in the PDP to respect the zoning formula in the party, which states that the presidential candidate and national chairman cannot come from the same region. Atiku is from the North-East (Adamawa), while the then national chairman of the party, Iyorchia Ayu, is from the north-central (Benue). The director-general of the presidential campaign, Aminu Tambuwal, is also from the north-west (Sokoto). In the interest of unity, the stakeholders want Ayu to resign so that another chairman from the southern part of the country can step in, but Atiku disagreed.
Also, the PDP stakeholders pleaded with Atiku to field Wike as his running mate. After a series of meetings both locally and abroad, Atiku breached the agreement and settled for Ifeanyi Okowa, the immediate past governor of Delta State. Now, Okowa has dumped Atiku and the PDP and has gone to pitch his tent with President Tinubu’s APC.
Speaking on Channels Television recently, Governor Seyi Makinde said the PDP also made a grave mistake by handing the presidential ticket, national chairman slot, and office of the director general of the presidential campaign to members from the northern region only. He said the exclusion of southerners from the three major slots dealt a self-inflicted blow to the PDP, which culminated in the loss suffered by the party in the poll.
How can you breach the rotation agreement between the north and south as well as the zoning formula within your party, and then convince Nigerians that you have the capability to unite the country? That is food for thought for Alhaji Atiku.
As for President Tinubu, he granted an interview in the ThisDay publication of April 13th, 1997, where he declared that ‘I don’t believe in One Nigeria’. The interview resurfaced online during the build-up to the 2023 presidential election, but his loyalists claimed that he was quoted out of context, especially when you consider the fact that as governor of Lagos State, he ran a pan-Nigerian cabinet which included many non-Yoruba-speaking people.
However, since becoming president, questions have been raised about his appointments, which some Nigerians believe are heavily skewed in favour of the south-west. To counter this, his media aides released the list of ‘all’ the appointments made by the president, but also quickly withdrew it after many loopholes were discovered. Sunday Dare promised to provide an updated list very soon, but he has yet to do so three weeks later.
Having lost Lagos, Osun, Enugu, Akwa-Ibom, Edo, Abia, Plateau, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Anambra and Imo in the 2023 presidential election, President Tinubu cannot afford to take chances again if he desires to seek re-election in 2027. It is glaring that many of the northern stakeholders who worked for him in the 2023 presidential election will not do so again. This singular reason explains the recent actions taken by the president in Lagos during the Obasa impeachment imbroglio. Tinubu weighed the political value of Obasa on one hand and Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu and the 36 lawmakers on the other. His verdict? Obasa, one of his die-hard loyalists, has more political value than Sanwo-Olu and the lawmakers. He therefore did everything possible to restore Obasa to his position.
The president also did the same in Rivers during the battle between the former governor of the state, Nyesom Wike, who is now the minister of the FCT, and the current governor, Siminalayi Fubara. Many analysts believe that Tinubu sided with Wike, especially given the fact that only Fubara was suspended for six months while Wike remained in office. Last week, it was reported that Fubara met with the president in London, and they allegedly had an agreement that Fubara’s sins would be forgiven if he joins the APC. Now, Delta state is already in the kitty with the defection of Governor Sheriff Oborevwori and his predecessor, Okowa. We are also told to expect more defections into the APC in the days ahead.
If things continue this way, then, as rightly predicted, the 2027 presidential election will be a serious battle between the north and south, a complete departure from the June 12, 1993 presidential election, which to date remains the freest, fairest and most credible election in Nigeria’s history. Is that the future our leaders desire for our beloved country and generations unborn?
Akinsuyi, former group politics editor of Daily Independent, currently studies sustainability communications strategies at the London School of Economics and Political Science.
